As the cold front continues to advance southward into the Gulf of Mexico, thunderstorm chances should quickly wane by late Thursday morning across both regions. Regardless, modest low/mid-level winds will likely temper the severe threat. Plentiful low-level moisture will be present along/south of the front in TX, which should support weak to locally moderate instability. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning along and near a cold front across parts of Deep South TX and the lower MS River Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Thursday. Valid 181200Z - 191200Z NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST Outlook Imagesĭay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Wed Nov 17 2021 Outlook for Thursday, November 18 Outlook Summary NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z ← back to overview Poor lapse rates aloft as well as weak overall MUCAPE of only a few hundred J/kg will preclude any severe threat. Lift along and behind the cold front should result in elevated thunderstorms, mainly after 00Z, from southeast MO into AR. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Lower MI during the day southwestward into central TX, with southerly winds resulting in 50s to perhaps lower 60s F dewpoints ahead of it. SynopsisĪn upper low will move east from Manitoba into Ontario, with a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft moving across the Plains and into the upper Great Lakes region. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States today. Valid 171200Z - 181200Z NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021

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